An inflammatory liquid fingerprint predicting tumor recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Tumor recurrence is a life-threatening complication after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Precise recurrence risk stratification before transplantation is essential for the management of recipients. Here, we aimed to establish an inflammation-related prediction model for posttransplant HCC recurrence based on pretransplant peripheral cytokine profiling. Two hundred and ninety-three patients who underwent LT in two independent medical centers were enrolled, and their pretransplant plasma samples were sent for cytokine profiling. We identified four independent risk factors, including alpha-fetoprotein, systemic immune-inflammation index, interleukin 6, and osteocalcin in the training cohort (n = 190) by COX regression analysis. A prediction model named inflammatory fingerprint (IFP) was established based on the above factors. The IFP effectively predicted posttransplant recurrence (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]: 0.792, C-index: 0.736). The high IFP group recipients had significantly worse 3-year recurrence-free survival rates (37.9 vs. 86.9%, p < 0.001). Simultaneous T-cell profiling revealed that recipients with high IFP were characterized by impaired T cell function. The IFP also performed well in the validation cohort (n = 103, AUROC: 0.807, C-index: 0.681). In conclusion, the IFP efficiently predicted posttransplant HCC recurrence and helped to refine pretransplant risk stratification. Impaired T cell function might be the intrinsic mechanism for the high recurrence risk of recipients in the high IFP group.