Maximum entropy modelling to identify optimal locations for an IMTA system comprising Sparus aurata, Mytilus galloprovincialis and Ulva rigida on Europe’s Atlantic coastline

Abstract

Meeting the resource demand for an increasing human population has led to the emergence of the aquaculture industry as the fastest growing sector for food production worldwide. Modern finfish aquaculture has raised environmental concerns and, to address this, Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) has gained popularity as a means to minimise environmental impacts. This is done by culturing extractive species alongside fed species to utilise excess nutrients and enhance their own growth. The current study, based within the Atlantic Area of Europe, identified suitable habitats for the three species Sparus aurata, Mytilus galloprovincialis and Ulva rigida, for use in a new IMTA system. Models were created using MaxEnt software and input into GIS software (ArcMap 10.8.1) for analysis. For all species, the AUC results in the model were >0.9, with values of 0.931 (S. aurata), 0.928 (M. galloprovincialis) and 0.939 (U. rigida), demonstrating significant predictive power. Jackknife testing of the model for each species identified the mean sea surface temperature (°C) and Chlorophyll A (mg m^–3) concentration as the two most important variables. The model showed that areas of >50% suitability could be found throughout the study area, although the most suitable sites were in coastal areas in more southern latitudes. To identify the feasibility of establishing an IMTA system in different areas, the shipping density, MPA status and the locations of harbours were added to the maps for further consideration. Using this study, and the species-specific information identified by the model, the aquaculture industry will be better equipped to identify potential IMTA sites and integrate these systems into the EU market for sustainable production.