A boundary perturbation approach for regional wave ensemble forecast

Abstract

In this study, we developed and validated two wave ensemble prediction systems (WEPS) to forecast wave conditions along the southeastern coast of Australia. Using the SWAN model (GEN3 ST6), we integrated complex bathymetric features with an unstructured grid and validated model outputs against buoy observations from Sydney, Port Kembla, and Batemans Bay. The two WEPS, SWAN-WW3 and SWAN-Pert, utilize different methodologies: SWAN-WW3 derives boundary conditions from NCEP’s Global Wave Ensemble System, while SWAN-Pert employs Latin Hypercube Sampling for boundary perturbations based on historical data. Our results demonstrate that both systems effectively predict significant wave height ($H_s$), with SWAN-Pert showing improved forecast accuracy in certain metrics compared to SWAN-WW3. Despite underdispersion in spread-skill diagrams, both WEPS exhibited good agreement with observed data. Additionally, rank histograms revealed that SWAN-Pert is more reliable at shorter lead times. This study highlights the potential of integrating statistical sampling methods and ensemble systems for enhancing regional wave forecasting accuracy.