Influence of galactic cosmic ray flux on extreme rainfall events in Greece and Libya

IF 1.8 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106327

Ronabson C. Fernandes , Henderson S. Wanderley , André L. Carvalho , Everton Frigo

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Abstract

The Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) flux can contribute to the formation of condensation nuclei (CN), radionuclides, and other particles, which in turn influence the formation of rain and extreme weather events. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the possible influence of GCR flux on the extreme rainfall events that occurred in Greece and Libya in September 2023. We used time series data for GCR, rainfall estimates from ERA5, and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for the period between September 1, 2023, and September 11, 2023. The results revealed a negative correlation between GCR and SST of −0.807 (Greece) and −0.828 (Libya), and a positive correlation between precipitation and SST of +0.972 (Greece) and +0.998 (Libya). The GCR flux and SST accounted for approximately 60.52% and 34.53% of the extreme event in Greece, and 33.71% and 65.96% in Libya, respectively. These statistical results indicate that GCR flux contributed to the formation of the extreme precipitation event that caused significant destruction in Greece and Libya in September 2023.

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银河宇宙射线通量对希腊和利比亚极端降雨事件的影响

银河宇宙射线（GCR）通量可促成凝结核（CN）、放射性核素和其他粒子的形成，进而影响降雨和极端天气事件的形成。本分析旨在研究 GCR 通量对 2023 年 9 月在希腊和利比亚发生的极端降雨事件可能产生的影响。我们使用了 2023 年 9 月 1 日至 2023 年 9 月 11 日期间的 GCR 时间序列数据、ERA5 推算的降雨量以及海面温度（SST）。结果显示，全球降水环流与海面温度的负相关性为-0.807（希腊）和-0.828（利比亚），降水量与海面温度的正相关性为+0.972（希腊）和+0.998（利比亚）。在希腊极端事件中，全球径向温差通量和海温分别约占 60.52% 和 34.53%，在利比亚分别约占 33.71% 和 65.96%。这些统计结果表明，2023 年 9 月希腊和利比亚发生的极端降水事件造成了严重破坏，而全球降水通量对极端降水事件的形成起到了推波助澜的作用。

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来源期刊

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.