Integrating PCA with deep learning models for stock market Forecasting: An analysis of Turkish stocks markets

Abstract

Financial data such as stock prices are rich time series data that contain valuable information for investors and financial professionals. Analysis of such data is critical to understanding market behaviour and predicting future price movements. However, stock price predictions are complex and difficult due to the intense noise, non-linear structures, and high volatility contained in this data. While this situation increases the difficulty of making accurate predictions, it also creates an important area for investors and analysts to identify opportunities in the market. One of the effective methods used in predicting stock prices is technical analysis. Multiple indicators are used to predict stock prices with technical analysis. These indicators formulate past stock price movements in different ways and produce signals such as buy, sell, and hold. In this study, the most frequently used ten different indicators were analyzed with PCA (Principal Component Analysis. This study aims to investigate the integration of PCA and deep learning models into the Turkish stock market using indicator values and to assess the effect of this integration on market prediction performance. The most effective indicators used as input for market prediction were selected with the PCA method, and then 4 different models were created using different deep learning architectures (LSTM, CNN, BiLSTM, GRU). The performance values of the proposed models were evaluated with MSE, MAE, MAPE and R2 measurement metrics. The results obtained show that using the indicators selected by PCA together with deep learning models improves market prediction performance. In particular, it was observed that one of the proposed models, the PCA-LSTM-CNN model, produced very successful results.