Time series analysis of sea surface temperature change in the coastal seas of Türkiye

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a crucial geophysical parameter in assessing heat exchange between the air and sea surface. Changes in SST and its accurate prediction play a pivotal role in explaining the global heat balance, determining atmospheric circulations, and constructing global climate models. This work aims to reveal a model for one-month-ahead forecasting of SST time series data along the Türkiye coasts, encompassing the Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara, and Black Seas, and their long-term future forecast. A long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models are used for this purpose. The ECMWF ERA5 (0.5^ox0.5°) monthly SST dataset spanning the years 1970–2023 is used for model development. The results obtained from the LSTM and SARIMA models show that there will be an increasing trend in SSTs along these seacoasts until 2050. The SST measurements of 23.4 °C, 20.2 °C, 17.0 °C, and 16.6 °C recorded along the Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara, and Black Seas in 2023 are expected to rise to 25.1 °C, 21.9 °C, 18.1 °C, and 18.8 °C, respectively, by 2050. These figures indicate an increase of 7.3%, 8.4%, 6.5%, and 13.3% in the SST values across these coastal seas over the next quarter century.