Changes in the incidence of melanoma in Australia, 2006–2021, by age group and ancestry: a modelling study

IF 6.7 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Medical Journal of Australia Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.5694/mja2.52404
David C Whiteman, Rachel E Neale, Peter Baade, Catherine M Olsen, Nirmala Pandeya
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Abstract

Objectives

To estimate the incidence of melanoma in Australia among people with ancestries associated with low, moderate, or high risk of melanoma, by sex and 5-year age group; to establish whether age-specific incidence rates by ancestry risk group have changed over time.

Study design

Modelling study; United States (SEER database) melanoma incidence rates for representative ancestral populations and Australian census data (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) used to estimate Australian melanoma incidence rates by ancestry-based risk.

Setting, participants

Australia, 2006–2021.

Main outcome measures

Age-specific invasive melanoma incidence rates, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-specific melanoma rates, by ancestry-based risk group, sex, and 5-year age group.

Results

The proportion of people in Australia who reported high risk (European) ancestry declined from 85.3% in 2006 to 71.1% in 2021. The estimated age-standardised melanoma incidence rate was higher for people with high risk ancestry (2021: males, 82.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 80.5–83.8] cases per 100 000 population; females, 58.5 [95% CI, 57.0–59.9] cases per 100 000 population) than for all Australians (males, 67.8 [95% CI, 66.5–69.2] cases per 100 000 population; females, 45.4 [95% CI, 44.3–46.5] cases per 100 000 population). AAPCs were consistently positive for Australians aged 50 years or older, both overall and for people with high risk ancestry, but were statistically significant only for some age groups beyond 65 years. AAPCs were negative for people aged 34 years or younger, but were generally not statistically significant.

Conclusions

Melanoma incidence has declined in some younger age groups in Australia, including among people with high risk ancestry. Social and behavioural changes over the same period that lead to lower levels of ultraviolet radiation exposure probably contributed to these changes.

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2006-2021 年澳大利亚黑色素瘤发病率的变化(按年龄组和血统分列):一项模型研究。
研究目的按性别和5岁年龄组估算澳大利亚黑色素瘤低、中、高风险血统人群的黑色素瘤发病率;确定按血统风险组划分的特定年龄发病率是否随时间推移而变化:模型研究;美国(SEER 数据库)代表性祖先人群的黑色素瘤发病率和澳大利亚人口普查数据(2006 年、2011 年、2016 年、2021 年)用于按祖先风险估算澳大利亚黑色素瘤发病率:主要结果指标:主要结果测量指标:年龄特异性浸润性黑色素瘤发病率,以及年龄特异性黑色素瘤发病率的年均百分比变化(AAPC),按基于祖先的风险组别、性别和5岁年龄组划分:澳大利亚报告高风险(欧裔)血统的人口比例从 2006 年的 85.3% 下降到 2021 年的 71.1%。具有高风险血统的人的估计年龄标准化黑色素瘤发病率较高(2021 年:男性,每 100 000 人中有 82.2 [95% 置信区间 {CI},80.5-83.8] 例;女性,每 100 000 人中有 58.5 [95% 置信区间 {CI},57.8] 例)。5[95%置信区间,57.0-59.9]例)高于所有澳大利亚人(男性,67.8[95%置信区间,66.5-69.2]例/10万人口;女性,45.4[95%置信区间,44.3-46.5]例/10万人口)。总体而言,50 岁或以上的澳大利亚人以及具有高风险血统的澳大利亚人的 AAPCs 一直呈阳性,但只有 65 岁以上的某些年龄组的 AAPCs 才具有统计学意义。34岁或以下人群的AAPC呈阴性,但一般没有统计学意义:结论:在澳大利亚,黑色素瘤发病率在一些较年轻的年龄组中有所下降,包括在高风险血统人群中。同期的社会和行为变化导致紫外线辐射暴露水平降低,这可能是这些变化的原因之一。
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来源期刊
Medical Journal of Australia
Medical Journal of Australia 医学-医学:内科
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
5.30%
发文量
410
审稿时长
3-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Medical Journal of Australia (MJA) stands as Australia's foremost general medical journal, leading the dissemination of high-quality research and commentary to shape health policy and influence medical practices within the country. Under the leadership of Professor Virginia Barbour, the expert editorial team at MJA is dedicated to providing authors with a constructive and collaborative peer-review and publication process. Established in 1914, the MJA has evolved into a modern journal that upholds its founding values, maintaining a commitment to supporting the medical profession by delivering high-quality and pertinent information essential to medical practice.
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