Prediction of body condition score throughout lactation by random regression test-day models.

Abstract

Regular monitoring of body condition score (BCS) changes during lactation is a crucial management tool in dairy cattle; however, the current BCS measurements are often discontinuous and unevenly spaced in time. The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of random regression test-day models (RR-TDM) to predict BCS for the entire lactation in dairy cows even if the actual scoring is limited to one BCS record. The data consisted of test-day records of milk yield (MY), fat percentage (FP), protein percentage (PP) and BCS (based on a 9-point scale with unit increments; 1-9) collected from 2014 to 2022 in 128 herds in the Walloon Region of Belgium. In total, 20,698 test-day records on 2166 first-parity Holstein cows (2-12 with an average of 9.42 test-day records per cow) were available for MY, FP and PP; and 7985 records on the same animals (2-12 with an average of 3.68 records per cow) were available for BCS. To estimate the solutions, only one randomly selected BCS record per animal along with all her MY, FP and PP records were used, which were then used to predict BCS data (calibration set). The remaining BCS (1-11 with an average 2.86 BCS records per animal) were used to evaluate the goodness of the predictions (validation set). Multiple-trait RR-TDM was used to estimate (co)variance components through the average information restricted maximum likelihood (AI-REML) algorithm. Predicted BCS were grouped into nine classes as the original observed BCS used for comparison. Pearson correlation between the predicted and observed BCS, prediction error (PE), absolute prediction error (APE) and root mean squared prediction error (RMSE) were calculated. Mean (standard deviation; SD) BCS was 4.97 (1.01), 4.95 (1.07) and 4.98 (1.00) BCS units in the full, calibration and validation datasets, respectively. Pearson correlation between the observed and predicted BCS was 0.71, mean (SD) PE was 0.04 (0.52) BCS units, mean (SD) APE was 0.48 (0.53) BCS units and RMSE was 0.72 BCS units. These findings demonstrate the ability of RR-TDM to predict BCS for the entire lactation using a single BCS record along with available test-day records of milk yield and composition in Holstein dairy cows.