[Risk Factors and a Prediction Model for Frequent Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease].

Yu-Fen Fu, Ting Mou, Xiang He, De-Hong Wu, Guo-Ping Li
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective To identify the risk factors of patients with frequent acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and construct a prediction model based on the clinical data,providing a theoretical basis for the clinical prevention and treatment. Methods A total of 25 638 COPD patients admitted to the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu from January 1,2013 to May 1,2023 were selected.Among them,11 315 patients were included according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,and their clinical characteristics were analyzed.Multivariate Logistic regression was carried out to identify the risk factors for frequent AECOPD.A nomogram model was utilized to quantify the risk of acute exacerbation,and the performance of the prediction model was assessed based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results In the patients with frequent AECOPD,male percentage (P<0.001),age (P<0.001),urban residence (P<0.001),smoking (P<0.001),length of stay (P<0.001),total cost (P<0.001),antibiotic cost (P<0.001),diabetes (P=0.003),respiratory failure (P<0.001),heart disease (P<0.001),application of systemic glucocorticoids (P<0.001),white blood cell count (P<0.001),neutrophil percentage (P<0.001),C-reactive protein (P<0.001),total cholesterol (P<0.001),and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) (P<0.001) were all higher than those in the patients with infrequent AECOPD.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that age,urban residence,smoking,diabetes,heart disease,Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection,application of systemic glucocorticoids,antibiotics,respiratory failure,and elevated white blood cell count,total cholesterol,and BNP were independent risk factors for hospitalization due to frequent AECOPD.A nomogram model of hospitalization due to frequent AECOPD was constructed according to risk factors.The ROC curve was established to evaluate the performance of the model,which showed the area under the ROC curve of 0.899 (95%CI=0.892-0.905),the sensitivity of 85.30%,and the specificity of 79.80%. Conclusion Frequent AECOPD is associated with smoking,heart disease,application of systemic glucocorticoids,Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection,age,low body mass index,and elevated BNP.Predicting the risks of hospitalization due to frequent AECOPD by the established model can provide theoretical support for the treatment and risk factor management of the patients.

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[慢性阻塞性肺病频繁急性加重的风险因素和预测模型]。
摘要] 目的 识别慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)急性加重频繁发生的危险因素,并根据临床数据构建预测模型,为临床防治提供理论依据。方法 选取成都市第三人民医院呼吸与危重症医学科 2013 年 1 月 1 日至 2023 年 5 月 1 日收治的 25 638 例慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)患者,按照纳入和排除标准纳入其中的 11 315 例患者,分析其临床特征。利用提名图模型量化急性加重的风险,并根据接收者操作特征曲线(ROC)下面积评估预测模型的性能。结果 在频繁AECOPD患者中,男性比例(PPPPPPP=0.003)、呼吸衰竭(PPPPPPP铜绿假单胞菌感染、全身应用糖皮质激素、抗生素、呼吸衰竭以及白细胞计数、总胆固醇和BNP升高是频繁AECOPD住院的独立危险因素。通过建立 ROC 曲线来评估模型的性能,结果显示 ROC 曲线下面积为 0.899(95%CI=0.892-0.905),灵敏度为 85.30%,特异度为 79.80%。结论 AECOPD 频发与吸烟、心脏病、全身应用糖皮质激素、铜绿假单胞菌感染、年龄、低体重指数、BNP 升高等因素有关,通过建立的模型预测 AECOPD 频发导致的住院风险可为患者的治疗和危险因素管理提供理论支持。
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来源期刊
中国医学科学院学报
中国医学科学院学报 Medicine-Medicine (all)
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
6813
期刊介绍: Acta Academiae Medicinae Sinicae was founded in February 1979. It is a comprehensive medical academic journal published in China and abroad, supervised by the Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China and sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College. The journal mainly reports the latest research results, work progress and dynamics in the fields of basic medicine, clinical medicine, pharmacy, preventive medicine, biomedicine, medical teaching and research, aiming to promote the exchange of medical information and improve the academic level of medicine. At present, the journal has been included in 10 famous foreign retrieval systems and their databases [Medline (PubMed online version), Elsevier, EMBASE, CA, WPRIM, ExtraMED, IC, JST, UPD and EBSCO-ASP]; and has been included in important domestic retrieval systems and databases [China Science Citation Database (Documentation and Information Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences), China Core Journals Overview (Peking University Library), China Science and Technology Paper Statistical Source Database (China Science and Technology Core Journals) (China Institute of Scientific and Technological Information), China Science and Technology Journal Paper and Citation Database (China Institute of Scientific and Technological Information)].
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