Elbow Arthroplasty Utilization in 2060: Projections of Utilization of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty in United States in the Next 40 years.

Abstract

Background: In the past decade the prevalence of end stage inflammatory elbow arthritis has declined with consequential changes in indications and utilization of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA). Current literature lacks future projections for the utilization of TEA. This aim of this study is to review the trends in utilization of TEA in last two decades and determine the projections of utilization for TEA (primary and revision) through 2060.

Methods: This analysis utilized the publicly available 2000-2019 data from the CMS Medicare Part-B National Summary. Procedure volumes including TEA, and revision TEA, were determined using current procedural terminology (CPT) codes and were uplifted to account for the growing number of Medicare eligible patients covered under Medicare Advantage. Using these volumes log-linear, Poisson, negative binomial regression, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to generate projections from 2020-2060. The Poisson model was chosen to display the data based on error analysis and prior literature.

Results: The projected annual growth rate from 2020 to 2060 for primary and revision TEA are 1.03% growth (95% CI 0.82% - 1.25%) and 5.17% growth (95% CI 3.02%-6.97%), respectively. By 2060, the demand for primary TEA and revision TEA is projected to be 2084 procedures (95% FI 1995 - 2174) and 3161 procedure (95% FI 3052 - 3272), respectively. The procedure volume for revision TEA is estimated to outnumber primary TEA by year 2050.

Conclusion: The overall procedural volume of primary TEA, and revision TEA continues to be low. Although it is estimated that the incidence of primary and revision TEA will continue to increase in next 40 years, the utilization trends only show mild increase, which is five times higher for revision TEA compared to primary TEA.