Climate-Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent

Abstract

Wetlands are crucial components of the Earth's system, interacting with various processes such as the hydrological cycle, energy exchanges with the atmosphere, and global nitrogen and carbon cycles. The future trajectory of wetlands is anticipated to be influenced not only by direct human activities, but also by climate change. Here we present our assessment of climate-driven global changes in wetlands extent, focusing on the main wetland complexes. We used an approach based on the Topographic Hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and soil liquid water content projections from 14 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis reveals a consistent decrease in wetlands extent in the Mediterranean, Central America, and northern South America, with a substantial loss of 28% in the western Amazon Basin for the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under the SSP370 scenario. Conversely, Central Africa exhibits an increase in wetlands extent, except in the Congo Basin. Nevertheless, most of the areas studied (80%) present uncertain results, due to conflicting projections of changes between the models. Notably, we show that there is significant uncertainty among CMIP6 models regarding liquid soil water content in high latitudes. By narrowing our focus to 10 models, which seem to better represent the thawing of permafrost, we obtain a better inter-model agreement. We then find a modest declines in the overall global area (<5%), but an average loss of 13% beyond 50°N. Specific areas like the Hudson Bay Lowlands experiencing a 21% decrease and the Western Siberian Lowlands a 15% decrease.