Scott C Ritchie, Henry J Taylor, Yujian Liang, Hasanga D Manikpurage, Lisa Pennells, Carles Foguet, Gad Abraham, Joel T Gibson, Xilin Jiang, Yang Liu, Yu Xu, Lois G Kim, Anubha Mahajan, Mark I McCarthy, Stephen Kaptoge, Samuel A Lambert, Angela Wood, Xueling Sim, Francis S Collins, Joshua C Denny, John Danesh, Adam S Butterworth, Emanuele Di Angelantonio, Michael Inouye
{"title":"Integrated clinical risk prediction of type 2 diabetes with a multifactorial polygenic risk score.","authors":"Scott C Ritchie, Henry J Taylor, Yujian Liang, Hasanga D Manikpurage, Lisa Pennells, Carles Foguet, Gad Abraham, Joel T Gibson, Xilin Jiang, Yang Liu, Yu Xu, Lois G Kim, Anubha Mahajan, Mark I McCarthy, Stephen Kaptoge, Samuel A Lambert, Angela Wood, Xueling Sim, Francis S Collins, Joshua C Denny, John Danesh, Adam S Butterworth, Emanuele Di Angelantonio, Michael Inouye","doi":"10.1101/2024.08.22.24312440","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Combining information from multiple GWASs for a disease and its risk factors has proven a powerful approach for development of polygenic risk scores (PRSs). This may be particularly useful for type 2 diabetes (T2D), a highly polygenic and heterogeneous disease where the additional predictive value of a PRS is unclear. Here, we use a meta-scoring approach to develop a metaPRS for T2D that incorporated genome-wide associations from both European and non-European genetic ancestries and T2D risk factors. We evaluated the performance of this metaPRS and benchmarked it against existing genome-wide PRS in 620,059 participants and 50,572 T2D cases amongst six diverse genetic ancestries from UK Biobank, INTERVAL, the All of Us Research Program, and the Singapore Multi-Ethnic Cohort. We show that our metaPRS was the most powerful PRS for predicting T2D in European population-based cohorts and had comparable performance to the top ancestry-specific PRS, highlighting its transferability. In UK Biobank, we show the metaPRS had stronger predictive power for 10-year risk than all individual risk factors apart from BMI and biomarkers of dysglycemia. The metaPRS modestly improved T2D risk stratification of QDiabetes risk scores for 10-year risk prediction, particularly when prioritising individuals for blood tests of dysglycemia. Overall, we present a highly predictive and transferrable PRS for T2D and demonstrate that the potential for PRS to incrementally improve T2D risk prediction when incorporated into UK guideline-recommended screening and risk prediction with a clinical risk score.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11370520/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.08.22.24312440","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Combining information from multiple GWASs for a disease and its risk factors has proven a powerful approach for development of polygenic risk scores (PRSs). This may be particularly useful for type 2 diabetes (T2D), a highly polygenic and heterogeneous disease where the additional predictive value of a PRS is unclear. Here, we use a meta-scoring approach to develop a metaPRS for T2D that incorporated genome-wide associations from both European and non-European genetic ancestries and T2D risk factors. We evaluated the performance of this metaPRS and benchmarked it against existing genome-wide PRS in 620,059 participants and 50,572 T2D cases amongst six diverse genetic ancestries from UK Biobank, INTERVAL, the All of Us Research Program, and the Singapore Multi-Ethnic Cohort. We show that our metaPRS was the most powerful PRS for predicting T2D in European population-based cohorts and had comparable performance to the top ancestry-specific PRS, highlighting its transferability. In UK Biobank, we show the metaPRS had stronger predictive power for 10-year risk than all individual risk factors apart from BMI and biomarkers of dysglycemia. The metaPRS modestly improved T2D risk stratification of QDiabetes risk scores for 10-year risk prediction, particularly when prioritising individuals for blood tests of dysglycemia. Overall, we present a highly predictive and transferrable PRS for T2D and demonstrate that the potential for PRS to incrementally improve T2D risk prediction when incorporated into UK guideline-recommended screening and risk prediction with a clinical risk score.