A novel nomogram based on the number of positive lymph nodes can predict the overall survival of patients with pancreatic head cancer after radical surgery.

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY World Journal of Surgical Oncology Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI:10.1186/s12957-024-03519-x

Ke You, Kai Lei, Xingxing Wang, Run Hu, Huizhi Zhang, Jie Xu, Zuojin Liu

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Abstract

Background: This study aimed to construct a novel nomogram based on the number of positive lymph nodes to predict the overall survival of patients with pancreatic head cancer after radical surgery.

Materials and methods: 2271 and 973 patients in the SEER Database were included in the development set and validation set, respectively. The primary clinical endpoint was OS (overall survival). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen independent risk factors of OS, and then independent risk factors were used to construct a novel nomogram. The C-index, calibration curves, and decision analysis curves were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram in the development and validation sets.

Results: After multivariate Cox regression analysis, the independent risk factors for OS included age, tumor extent, chemotherapy, tumor size, LN (lymph nodes) examined, and LN positive. A nomogram was constructed by using independent risk factors for OS. The C-index of the nomogram for OS was 0.652 [(95% confidence interval (CI): 0.639-0.666)] and 0.661 (95%CI: 0.641-0.680) in the development and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves and decision analysis curves proved that the nomogram had good predictive ability.

Conclusions: The nomogram based on the number of positive LN can effectively predict the overall survival of patients with pancreatic head cancer after surgery.

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基于阳性淋巴结数量的新型提名图可以预测胰头癌患者根治术后的总生存期。

背景：本研究旨在构建一个基于阳性淋巴结数量的新型提名图，以预测胰头癌患者根治术后的总生存期。材料与方法：SEER数据库中的2271例和973例患者分别被纳入开发集和验证集。主要临床终点是OS（总生存期）。采用单变量和多变量Cox回归分析筛选OS的独立风险因素，然后利用独立风险因素构建新的提名图。C指数、校准曲线和决策分析曲线用于评估开发集和验证集中提名图的预测能力：经过多变量考克斯回归分析，OS的独立风险因素包括年龄、肿瘤范围、化疗、肿瘤大小、LN（淋巴结）检查和LN阳性。利用OS的独立风险因素构建了一个提名图。在开发集和验证集中，OS提名图的C指数分别为0.652[（95%置信区间（CI）：0.639-0.666）]和0.661（95%CI：0.641-0.680）。校准曲线和决策分析曲线证明，提名图具有良好的预测能力：基于LN阳性数量的提名图能有效预测胰头癌患者术后的总生存率。

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来源期刊

World Journal of Surgical Oncology ONCOLOGY-SURGERY

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

15.60%

发文量

362

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： World Journal of Surgical Oncology publishes articles related to surgical oncology and its allied subjects, such as epidemiology, cancer research, biomarkers, prevention, pathology, radiology, cancer treatment, clinical trials, multimodality treatment and molecular biology. Emphasis is placed on original research articles. The journal also publishes significant clinical case reports, as well as balanced and timely reviews on selected topics. Oncology is a multidisciplinary super-speciality of which surgical oncology forms an integral component, especially with solid tumors. Surgical oncologists around the world are involved in research extending from detecting the mechanisms underlying the causation of cancer, to its treatment and prevention. The role of a surgical oncologist extends across the whole continuum of care. With continued developments in diagnosis and treatment, the role of a surgical oncologist is ever-changing. Hence, World Journal of Surgical Oncology aims to keep readers abreast with latest developments that will ultimately influence the work of surgical oncologists.