Investigation of P. vivax elimination via mass drug administration: A simulation study

IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemics Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100789
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Abstract

Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread malaria parasite. P. vivax has the ability to remain dormant (as a hypnozoite) in the human liver and subsequently reactivate, which makes control efforts more difficult. Given the majority of P. vivax infections are due to hypnozoite reactivation, targeting the hypnozoite reservoir with a radical cure is crucial for achieving P. vivax elimination. Stochastic effects can strongly influence dynamics when disease prevalence is low or when the population size is small. Hence, it is important to account for this when modelling malaria elimination. We use a stochastic multiscale model of P. vivax transmission to study the impacts of multiple rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) with a radical cure, accounting for superinfection and hypnozoite dynamics. Our results indicate multiple rounds of MDA with a high-efficacy drug are needed to achieve a substantial probability of elimination. This work has the potential to help guide P. vivax elimination strategies by quantifying elimination probabilities for an MDA approach.

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通过大规模给药消除间日疟原虫的研究:模拟研究
间日疟原虫是地域分布最广的疟疾寄生虫。间日疟原虫能够在人的肝脏中保持休眠(作为下生虫),随后重新活化,这就增加了控制工作的难度。鉴于大多数间日疟原虫感染都是由次原虫再活化引起的,因此针对次原虫库的根治方法对于消灭间日疟原虫至关重要。当疾病流行率较低或种群规模较小时,随机效应会对动力学产生很大影响。因此,在建立消除疟疾模型时必须考虑到这一点。我们利用间日疟传播的随机多尺度模型,研究了多轮大规模用药(MDA)和根治的影响,并考虑了超级感染和低佐虫动态。我们的研究结果表明,需要使用高效药物进行多轮大规模给药,才能达到很高的根除概率。这项研究通过量化 MDA 方法的消除概率,有可能帮助指导消灭间日疟原虫的战略。
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来源期刊
Epidemics
Epidemics INFECTIOUS DISEASES-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
7.90%
发文量
92
审稿时长
140 days
期刊介绍: Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.
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