Hongping Gu, Jonathan Meyer, Shih-Yu Simon Wang, Robert Gillies, Wei Zhang, Everett Taylor
{"title":"Assessing the future probable maximum precipitation in Utah under global warming","authors":"Hongping Gu, Jonathan Meyer, Shih-Yu Simon Wang, Robert Gillies, Wei Zhang, Everett Taylor","doi":"10.1002/joc.8554","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) has been an important criterion for designing hydrological infrastructure and it is likely to change with respect to global warming. To assess the potential risk that hydrological infrastructure in the U.S. state of Utah may encounter under the least mitigated emission scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), this study identified historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2100) PMP estimates to quantify the range and degree of change for extreme precipitation. The results show that an averaged RCP8.5 simulated 19.2% (3.43°C) increase in dewpoint temperature will result in a 39% (88.39 mm) increase in 24-h 100-mi<sup>2</sup> (259 km<sup>2</sup>) PMP values. It is also found that the rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the state would experience a greater PMP increase (106.43 mm) than that in the state's National Parks and forested areas (93.98 mm). This discovery indicates a vulnerability that could affect both hydrological and metropolitan infrastructure. The planning of the state's infrastructure needs to consider the changing PMP under global warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8554","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) has been an important criterion for designing hydrological infrastructure and it is likely to change with respect to global warming. To assess the potential risk that hydrological infrastructure in the U.S. state of Utah may encounter under the least mitigated emission scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), this study identified historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2100) PMP estimates to quantify the range and degree of change for extreme precipitation. The results show that an averaged RCP8.5 simulated 19.2% (3.43°C) increase in dewpoint temperature will result in a 39% (88.39 mm) increase in 24-h 100-mi2 (259 km2) PMP values. It is also found that the rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the state would experience a greater PMP increase (106.43 mm) than that in the state's National Parks and forested areas (93.98 mm). This discovery indicates a vulnerability that could affect both hydrological and metropolitan infrastructure. The planning of the state's infrastructure needs to consider the changing PMP under global warming.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions