Establishment of a prediction model of pulmonary artery hypertension in patients with hyperthyroidism

Abstract

Objective

This study aims to assess the tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE)/PASP ratio as a potential indicator for predicting the probability of developing pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) in hyperthyroidism patients. A nomogram model will be developed based on our findings, as well as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Methods

The study involved 166 hyperthyroid patients treated at Yijishan Hospital, and the period covered August 2021 to August 2022. Patients were divided into two groups according to pulmonary artery systolic pressure ≥35 mmHg. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were performed on the two groups' demographic and laboratory data to identify potential diagnostic markers. These parameters were evaluated using ROC curves to determine their precision in forecasting PAH. The findings were validated by plotting a calibration curve based on a line chart model.

Results

In the study, eventually, 80 patients were enrolled: 30 in the PAH group and 50 in the No PAH group. Multipleistic regression analysis predicted the occurrence risk of developing PAH. When paired with other conventional echocardiographic parameters (such as TAPSE, MPI, and SV) and serological markers (such as FT3 and FT4), the developed model demonstrated outstanding predictive performance with an area under the ROC curve of 0.985, a Youden index of 0.971, a sensitivity of 100%, and a specificity of 97.1%.

Conclusions

The nomogram model constructed by combining the TAPSE/PASP ratio with FT3 and FT4 serum markers, as well as conventional ultrasound parameters SV and MPI in hyperthyroidism patients, demonstrates robust discriminatory ability and consistency.