Motivated perception of leaders when perceived political party continuity is low: The mediating role of self-uncertainty

Abstract

Group members often view their leaders as agents of continuity because leadership can help maintain group history and core values despite inevitable changes. Previous research suggests a connection between group continuity (i.e., a sense of connection between a group's past, present, and future) and a preference for autocratic leadership. However, whether group members' perception of the current state of group continuity influences the way they perceive leaders whom they have already supported has not been investigated. In the current study, we hypothesized that self-uncertainty mediates the effect of perceived continuity on perceptions of leaders. Specifically, lowered perception of group continuity triggers self-uncertainty, which motivates people to perceive the leaders they support to be more autocratic because these leaders often provide effective means to reduce feelings of self-uncertainty. Additionally, as people might differ in their long-term desire for group continuity, we hypothesized that the desire for group continuity moderates the path from perceived group continuity and self-uncertainty. To test the hypothesized moderated mediation model, we collected data from Democrats and Republicans in the United States (N = 515) after the 2022 midterm elections. Analyses showed a significant moderated mediation effect, index = −0.02, 95% CI [−0.04, −0.002]. Specifically, perception of continuity within one's political party positively correlated with self-uncertainty, and this correlation was stronger among those who displayed greater levels of desire for group continuity. Increased self-uncertainty, in turn, positively correlated with the perception that the gubernatorial leader that one voted for during the midterm elections was autocratic.