Political Partisanship, COVID-19 Lockdown Policies, and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Areas

IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI:10.1007/s11293-024-09804-0

Yixiao Jiang, Kathryn D’Amato, Robert Winder, George Zestos

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Abstract

Based on a dynamic panel data model, this paper estimates the impact of lockdown policies on inflation with U.S. metropolitan-level data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After controlling for the unit/time fixed effects and several aggregate demand/supply shifters, lockdown policies created a mild inflationary effect nationwide, though the individual effect was heterogeneous. This study novelly analyzes the political economy of coronavirus disease policy and the subsequent economic outcomes. In particular, the inflationary impact was most pronounced for Republican-governed states that switched votes from President Trump in 2016 to President (elect) Biden in 2020, suggesting price stability is a source of voting behavior. On the contrary, lockdown policies caused deflation in Democratic-governed states where unemployment rates and public compliance with lockdown measures were presumably higher. The results indicate that the economic consequences of public policies depend critically on the political partisanship of the region.

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政治党派、COVID-19 封锁政策和通货膨胀动态：来自美国大都市地区的证据

本文基于动态面板数据模型，利用劳工统计局提供的美国大都市数据，估算了封锁政策对通货膨胀的影响。在控制了单位/时间固定效应和几种总需求/总供给转移因素后，封锁政策在全国范围内产生了轻微的通货膨胀效应，尽管个体效应是异质性的。本研究对冠状病毒疾病政策的政治经济学及其后续经济结果进行了新颖的分析。特别是，对共和党执政的州而言，通胀影响最为明显，这些州的选票从 2016 年的特朗普总统转向了 2020 年的拜登总统（当选人），这表明物价稳定是投票行为的一个来源。相反，封锁政策在民主党执政的州造成了通货紧缩，这些州的失业率和公众对封锁措施的遵从度可能更高。结果表明，公共政策的经济后果在很大程度上取决于该地区的政治党派。

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来源期刊

ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

16.70%

发文量

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