Near-Real Time Thermospheric Density Retrieval from Precise Low Earth Orbit Spacecraft Ephemerides During Geomagnetic Storms

Abstract

We present a methodology to generate low-latency, high spatio-temporal resolution thermospheric density estimates using publicly available Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft ephemerides. This provides a means of generating density estimates that can be used in a data-assimilative context by the satellite operations and thermosphere communities. It also contributes to the data base of high-resolution density estimates during geomagnetic storms -- which remains one of the major gaps for the development and benchmarking of density models. Using accelerometer-derived densities from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) spacecraft as truth, our method surpasses Energy Dissipation Rate-Type density retrieval techniques and three widely used operational density models in terms of accuracy: EDR (103.37%), JB2008 (85.43%), DTM2000 (52.73%), and NRLMSISE-00 (12.31%). We demonstrate the robustness of our methodology during a critical time for spacecraft operators -- attempting to operate in the presence of geomagnetic storms, by reconstructing density profiles along the orbits of three LEO satellites during 80 geomagnetic storms. These profiles exhibit high spatial and temporal resolution compared to three operational thermospheric models, highlighting the operational applicability and potential for their use in model validation. Our findings suggest that the increasing availability of precise orbit determination data offers a valuable, yet underutilized, resource that could provide a significant improvement to data assimilative thermospheric models, ultimately enhancing both spacecraft operations and thermospheric modeling efforts.