This study investigates laser-induced ignition in a model-rocket combustor through computational simulations. The primary focus is on characterizing successful and unsuccessful ignition scenarios and elucidating the underlying physical mechanisms. Large Eddy simulations (LESs) are utilized to explore laser-based forced ignition in a methane–oxygen combustor, with attention given to the intricate interplay of factors such as initial condition variability and turbulent flow field. Perturbations in laser parameters and initial flow conditions introduce stochastic behavior, revealing critical insights into ignition location relative to the fuel-oxidizer mixture. A significant methodological innovation lies in the adaptation of established image analysis techniques to track and monitor the transport of hot packets within the flow field. By extending these tools, the study provides insights into the interaction between ignition kernels and flammable gases, offering a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon. Results highlight the interplay between hydrodynamic ejections from the laser spark and turbulent fluctuations in the background flow. Indeed, the hydrodynamic ejection emanating from the laser spark, which typically plays a central role for isolated kernels in quiescent flows, competes with the entrainment velocity if its values are within the same order of magnitude and if the laser focal location is particularly close to the shear layer’s edge.