Numerical Prediction of Wind Gusts Using the TSUNM3 Model

Abstract

For short-term forecasting of weather periods characterized by strong winds with gusts, it is proposed to use results of calculations based on the TSUNM3 (Tomsk State University Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Meteorological Model) local weather numerical prediction model in combination with semiempirical formulas for estimating the scales of wind gust speeds. The comparison of the calculations and observations of meteorological parameters obtained for the conditions under consideration at the meteorological stations of the Atmosfera Common Use Center of the Institute of Atmospheric Optics, the AMMS-RF (airfield meteorological measuring system) of the Tomsk airport, and meteorological stations of the Tomsk CHEM showed the prospects of using the model for numerical forecasting of this dangerous weather phenomenon. The results of the work are to be used for the development of an information and predictive system for early warning of dangerous wind gusts.