Modeling Climate Changes and Atmospheric Ozone Variations from 1980 to 2020 Using the Chemistry-Climate Model SOCOLv3

Abstract

To assess the relative contribution of key chemical and physical processes to the observed variability in climate and atmospheric gas composition from the 1980s to the 2020s, numerical experiments were conducted using the chemical-climatic model SOCOLv3. The study investigated factors determining the variability of principal climatic characteristics, including changes in the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances; variations in greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperature, and sea ice extent; fluctuations in solar activity; and alterations in atmospheric aerosol content. Calculations for scenarios considering each of these factors individually, as well as a baseline model experiment accounting for all factors concurrently, were performed to evaluate the relative roles of these factors. The outcomes of the numerical experiments determined the relative contributions of different factors to changes in tropospheric temperature, lower stratospheric temperature, and ozone content from 1980 to 2020. The results of the model calculations were then compared with data from SBUV satellite measurements.