Will the Green Transition be Inflationary? Expectations Matter

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Imf Economic Review Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI:10.1057/s41308-024-00262-x

Alessandro Ferrari, Valerio LandiNispi Landi

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We analyze the inflationary effects of a gradual increase in a carbon tax in the textbook New Keynesian model. The policy gradually reduces emissions, a key feature of the green transition. We find that the increase in the tax today exerts inflationary pressures, but the expected further increase in the tax tomorrow depresses current demand, putting downward pressure on prices: We show that the second effect is larger. If households do not anticipate a future fall in income (because they are not rational or the government is not credible), the overall effect may be inflationary. We extend the analysis in a medium-scale DSGE model, and we find again that the green transition is deflationary. Also in this larger model, by relaxing the rational expectations assumption, we show that the transition may initially be inflationary.

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绿色转型会带来通货膨胀吗？预期很重要

我们在教科书式的新凯恩斯主义模型中分析了逐步提高碳税对通货膨胀的影响。该政策逐步减少排放，这是绿色转型的一个关键特征。我们发现，今天的增税会产生通胀压力，但明天的预期增税会抑制当前需求，从而对价格产生下行压力：我们的研究表明，第二种效应更大。如果家庭没有预期到未来收入会下降（因为他们不理性或政府不可信），则总体效应可能是通货膨胀。我们将分析扩展到一个中等规模的 DSGE 模型中，再次发现绿色过渡是通货紧缩。同样，在这个更大的模型中，通过放宽理性预期假设，我们表明绿色过渡最初可能是通胀性的。

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来源期刊

Imf Economic Review Multiple-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

4.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome. The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein. Comments “The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review “To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF

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