A multi-modal approach for mixed-frequency time series forecasting

Leopoldo Lusquino Filho, Rafael de Oliveira Werneck, Manuel Castro, Pedro Ribeiro Mendes Júnior, Augusto Lustosa, Marcelo Zampieri, Oscar Linares, Renato Moura, Elayne Morais, Murilo Amaral, Soroor Salavati, Ashish Loomba, Ahmed Esmin, Maiara Gonçalves, Denis José Schiozer, Alexandre Ferreira, Alessandra Davólio, Anderson Rocha
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Abstract

This study proposes a novel multimodal approach for mixed-frequency time series forecasting in the oil industry, enabling the use of high-frequency (HF) data in their original frequency. We specifically address the challenge of integrating HF data streams, such as pressure and temperature measurements, with daily time series without introducing noise. Our approach was compared with existing econometric regression model mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and with the data-driven models N-HiTS and a GRU-based network, across short-, medium-, and long-term prediction horizons. Additionally, we validated the proposed method on datasets from other domains beyond the oil industry. The experimental results indicate that our multimodal approach significantly improves long-term prediction accuracy.

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混合频率时间序列预测的多模式方法
本研究为石油行业的混合频率时间序列预测提出了一种新颖的多模式方法,使高频(HF)数据在其原始频率下得以使用。我们特别解决了将压力和温度测量等高频数据流与日时间序列整合而不引入噪声的难题。我们的方法与现有的计量回归模型混合数据采样(MIDAS)以及数据驱动模型 N-HiTS 和基于 GRU 的网络进行了短期、中期和长期预测范围的比较。此外,我们还在石油行业以外的其他领域的数据集上验证了所提出的方法。实验结果表明,我们的多模态方法显著提高了长期预测的准确性。
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