Empowering global ethereum price prediction with EtherVoyant: a state-of-the-art time series forecasting model

Umar Islam, Babar Shah, Abdullah A. Al-Atawi, Gioia Arnone, Mohamed R. Abonazel, Ijaz Ali, Fernando Moreira
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Abstract

Ethereum has emerged as a major platform for decentralized apps and smart contracts with the heightened interest in cryptocurrencies in recent years. Investors and market participants in the cryptocurrency space will find it increasingly important to use reliable price prediction models as Ethereum's popularity grows. To better estimate Ethereum prices around the world, we propose "EtherVoyant," a novel hybrid forecasting model that combines the advantages of ARIMA and SARIMA methods. To improve its forecasting abilities, EtherVoyant uses Ethereum price history to train ARIMA and SARIMA components independently before fusing their predictions. With the help of feature engineering and data preparation, we further improve the model so that it can deal with real-world difficulties like missing values and seasonality in the data. We also investigate hyperparameter optimization for the model's best possible performance. We compare EtherVoyant's forecasts against those of the more conventional ARIMA and SARIMA models to determine its efficacy. By providing more precise and trustworthy price forecasts, our trial results suggest that EtherVoyant is superior to the individual models. The importance of this study resides in the fact that it will lead to the creation of a sophisticated time series forecasting model that will be useful to cryptocurrency investors, traders, and decision-makers. We hope that by making EtherVoyant available on a worldwide scale, we will help advance the field of cryptocurrency analytics and encourage wider adoption of blockchain-based assets.

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利用 EtherVoyant 增强全球以太坊价格预测能力:最先进的时间序列预测模型
近年来,随着人们对加密货币的兴趣日益浓厚,以太坊已成为去中心化应用程序和智能合约的主要平台。随着以太坊越来越受欢迎,加密货币领域的投资者和市场参与者会发现使用可靠的价格预测模型越来越重要。为了更好地估算全球以太坊价格,我们提出了 "EtherVoyant",一种结合了 ARIMA 和 SARIMA 方法优点的新型混合预测模型。为了提高预测能力,EtherVoyant 使用以太坊价格历史记录来独立训练 ARIMA 和 SARIMA 组件,然后再融合它们的预测结果。在特征工程和数据准备的帮助下,我们进一步改进了模型,使其能够处理数据中的缺失值和季节性等现实世界中的难题。我们还研究了超参数优化,以尽可能提高模型的性能。我们将 EtherVoyant 的预测与更传统的 ARIMA 和 SARIMA 模型进行比较,以确定其有效性。试验结果表明,EtherVoyant 能提供更精确、更可靠的价格预测,因此优于其他模型。这项研究的重要性在于,它将有助于创建一个复杂的时间序列预测模型,为加密货币投资者、交易商和决策者提供帮助。我们希望,通过在全球范围内提供 EtherVoyant,我们将帮助推动加密货币分析领域的发展,并鼓励更广泛地采用基于区块链的资产。
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