Impact of Polar Vortex Modes on Winter Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

This study is an additional investigation of stratosphere–troposphere coupling based on the recent stratospheric winter descriptions in five distinct modes: January, February, Double, Dynamical, and Dadiative. These modes, established in a previous study, categorize the main stratospheric winter typologies modulated by the timing of important sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and final stratospheric warmings (FSWs). The novelty of this research is to investigate the Northern Annular Mode, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies in the Ural and Aleutian regions, and the decomposition of Eliassen–Palm flux into wavenumbers 1 and 2 within each mode. The results show that the January and Double modes exhibit similar pre-warming surface signals, characterized by Ural blocking and Aleutian trough events preceding weak polar vortex events. The January mode displays a positive MSLP anomaly of +395 hPa (−191 hPa) in the Ural (Aleutian) region in December, while the Double mode shows +311 hPa (−89 hPa) in November. These modes are primarily wave-1 driven, generating tropospheric responses via negative Arctic Oscillation patterns. Conversely, the February and Dynamical modes show opposite signals, with Aleutian blocking and Ural trough events preceding strong polar vortex events. In December, the February mode exhibits MSLP anomalies of +119 hPa (Aleutian) and −180 hPa (Ural), while the Dynamical mode shows +77 hPa and −184 hPa, respectively. These modes, along with important SSWs in February and dynamical FSWs, are driven by both wave-1 and wave-2 and do not significantly impact the troposphere. The Radiative mode’s occurrence is strongly related to the Aleutian blocking presence. These findings confirm that SSW timing is influenced by specific dynamical forcing related to surface precursors and underscore its importance in subsequent tropospheric responses. This study establishes a connection between early winter tropospheric conditions and upcoming stratospheric states, potentially improving seasonal forecasts in the northern hemisphere.