Mohammad Rezaei, Hazhar Habibi, Mostafa Asadizadeh
{"title":"Determination of the stress concentration factor adjacent an extracted underground coal panel using the CART and MARS algorithms","authors":"Mohammad Rezaei, Hazhar Habibi, Mostafa Asadizadeh","doi":"10.1007/s12145-024-01476-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, classification and regression tree (CART) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) models are proposed to predict the stress concentration factor (SCF) around an extracted underground coal panel. Models are trained and tested using 120 collected datasets with 100 series allocated for models training and 20 datasets reserved for testing. For SCF prediction using the CART and MARS models, input parameters including overburden thickness (H), specific gravity of rock mass (γ), straight distance from the panel edge (D), and height of disturbed zone over the mined panel (H<sub>d</sub>) are utilized, employing principal component analysis (PCA) to remove correlations. A predictive tree graph and 17 if–then rules with quantitative outputs are generated from the CART model, while a predictive equation is derived from the MARS technique for SCF prediction. The achieved values of the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) for CART and MARS models are 0.940 and 0.957, respectively. Furthermore, obtained amounts of normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), variant account for (VAF), and performance index (PI) for CART are 0.043 92.473%, and 1.82, respectively. For the MARS model these values are 0.035, 95.419%, and 1.876,. Additionally, performance evaluations of the models using the Wilcoxon Signed Ranks and Friedman non-parametric tests, along with Taylor diagrams and error analysis demonstrate the reliability and suitability of the proposed models for SCF prediction. However, error and accuracy analyses confirm that MARS model yields more precise outputs, achieving 2.57% greater accuracy and 10.84% lower error than the CART model. Furthermore, the importance analysis demonstrated that both H and H<sub>d</sub> have the highest importance on the SCF, while γ has the lowest, with importance values of 33.33% and 11.11%, respectively. Models verification based on the field SCF measurement confirms the models validity, as indicated by the relative errors of 6.83 for the MARS model and 7.05 for the CART model. Finally, a comparative analysis based on a case study data validates the practical application of the proposed models.</p>","PeriodicalId":49318,"journal":{"name":"Earth Science Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earth Science Informatics","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01476-3","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this study, classification and regression tree (CART) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) models are proposed to predict the stress concentration factor (SCF) around an extracted underground coal panel. Models are trained and tested using 120 collected datasets with 100 series allocated for models training and 20 datasets reserved for testing. For SCF prediction using the CART and MARS models, input parameters including overburden thickness (H), specific gravity of rock mass (γ), straight distance from the panel edge (D), and height of disturbed zone over the mined panel (Hd) are utilized, employing principal component analysis (PCA) to remove correlations. A predictive tree graph and 17 if–then rules with quantitative outputs are generated from the CART model, while a predictive equation is derived from the MARS technique for SCF prediction. The achieved values of the coefficient of determination (R2) for CART and MARS models are 0.940 and 0.957, respectively. Furthermore, obtained amounts of normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), variant account for (VAF), and performance index (PI) for CART are 0.043 92.473%, and 1.82, respectively. For the MARS model these values are 0.035, 95.419%, and 1.876,. Additionally, performance evaluations of the models using the Wilcoxon Signed Ranks and Friedman non-parametric tests, along with Taylor diagrams and error analysis demonstrate the reliability and suitability of the proposed models for SCF prediction. However, error and accuracy analyses confirm that MARS model yields more precise outputs, achieving 2.57% greater accuracy and 10.84% lower error than the CART model. Furthermore, the importance analysis demonstrated that both H and Hd have the highest importance on the SCF, while γ has the lowest, with importance values of 33.33% and 11.11%, respectively. Models verification based on the field SCF measurement confirms the models validity, as indicated by the relative errors of 6.83 for the MARS model and 7.05 for the CART model. Finally, a comparative analysis based on a case study data validates the practical application of the proposed models.
期刊介绍:
The Earth Science Informatics [ESIN] journal aims at rapid publication of high-quality, current, cutting-edge, and provocative scientific work in the area of Earth Science Informatics as it relates to Earth systems science and space science. This includes articles on the application of formal and computational methods, computational Earth science, spatial and temporal analyses, and all aspects of computer applications to the acquisition, storage, processing, interchange, and visualization of data and information about the materials, properties, processes, features, and phenomena that occur at all scales and locations in the Earth system’s five components (atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, biosphere, cryosphere) and in space (see "About this journal" for more detail). The quarterly journal publishes research, methodology, and software articles, as well as editorials, comments, and book and software reviews. Review articles of relevant findings, topics, and methodologies are also considered.