Current potential of CH4 emission estimates using TROPOMI in the Middle East

Abstract

Abstract. An improved divergence method has been developed to estimate annual methane (CH4) emissions from TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) observations. It has been applied to the period of 2018 to 2021 over the Middle East, where the orography is complicated, and the mean mixing ratio of methane (XCH4) might be affected by albedos or aerosols over some locations. To adapt to extreme changes of terrain over mountains or coasts, winds are used with their divergent part removed. A temporal filter is introduced to identify highly variable emissions and to further exclude fake sources caused by retrieval artifacts. We compare our results to widely used bottom-up anthropogenic emission inventories: Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Community Emissions Data System (CEDS), and Global Fuel Exploitation Inventory (GFEI) over several regions representing various types of sources. The NOx emissions are from EDGAR and Daily Emissions Constrained by Satellite Observations (DECSO), and the industrial heat sources identified by Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) are further used to better understand our resulting methane emissions. Our results indicate possibly large underestimations of methane emissions in metropolises like Tehran (up to 50 %) and Isfahan (up to 70 %) in Iran. The derived annual methane emissions from oil/gas production near the Caspian Sea in Turkmenistan are comparable to GFEI but more than 2 times higher than EDGAR and CEDS in 2019. Large discrepancies in the distribution of methane sources in Riyadh and its surrounding areas are found between EDGAR, CEDS, GFEI, and our emissions. The methane emission from oil/gas production to the east of Riyadh seems to be largely overestimated by EDGAR and CEDS, while our estimates as well as GFEI and DECSO NOx indicate much lower emissions from industrial activities. On the other hand, regions like Iran, Iraq, and Oman are dominated by sources from oil and gas exploitation that probably include more irregular releases of methane, with the result that our estimates, which include only invariable sources, are lower than the bottom-up emission inventories.