The Impact of Airbnb on Long-Term Rental Markets in San Francisco: A Geospatial Analysis Using Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression

Abstract

The rapid proliferation of peer-to-peer short-term vacation rentals has sparked a debate regarding their impact on housing markets. This study further investigates this issue by examining the effect of Airbnb on relative rent costs in San Francisco. The research addresses a critical gap in understanding whether Airbnb financially burdens local renters within different income groups. The authors also differentiated the effect of Airbnb accommodations with different levels of commercialization by categorizing Airbnb listings based on their level of commercialization. Using the multiscale geographically weighted regression technique, this study also considered spatial variations in the relationship between short- and long-term rental markets. The findings indicate that the density of Airbnb only affects the relative rent of renters with a yearly household income between USD 50,000 and USD 75,000. Furthermore, the density of Airbnb listings from more commercialized hosts that own between three and eleven showed a positive relationship with the relative rent cost. This study highlighted the variability in the impact of Airbnb on the local community by income group, listing characteristic, and geographic region. This finding underscores the need for differentiated regulation toward peer-to-peer accommodations, as the impact on rent affordability varies by host commercialization level and renter income group.