Species distribution models predict suitable habitat for the overlooked and understudied freshwater lampreys of Illinois

Abstract

Fisheries monitoring, management, funding, and public interest have traditionally focused on game fishes, leading to insufficient data for many non-game freshwater fishes—including lampreys. Conserving lampreys is particularly challenging given their unique life history and propensity for avoiding conventional sampling methods. However, species distribution modeling is an innovative tool that can use historical presence data and spatial data to refine biodiversity monitoring. Here, we created four species distribution models using landscape-scale variables and species occurrence records to predict suitable and unsuitable habitats for extant, native Illinois lampreys. We developed three single-species models and one combined species model that utilized occurrence records from all five extant lamprey species in Illinois. Patterns of suitable and unsuitable habitats for native lampreys indicated similar preferences in habitat. Specifically, maximum temperature values were less than 25 °C and mean soil erodibility was between 0 and 0.5. Urban land cover was in all four models, but the patterns in habitat suitability were not the same across the lamprey species. These models can help natural resource managers prioritize survey sites and determine the contemporary distribution of this imperiled group of fishes.