Urgency to action: Enabling circular futures for the building sector

Abstract

The world is suffering from increasing weather extremes caused by climate change of which the building sector is a major contributor. There is however a large reduction potential in the sector and circular economy has received increased attention both within research and practice. This study explores circular futures within the building sector through the futures studies method of backcasting. Two circular futures for the year 2035 are imagined in separate expert workshops. In one workshop the future described is one where buildings are only extended vertically and no new construction takes place, and the other workshop describes one where vacant office buildings are adapted to housing. The aim is to establish themes which may guide the building sector to become more circular through building adaptation. Many themes are common for both futures, such as the urgency of change and the importance of political willingness and action. Further, social acceptance, funding, and economic feasibility assessments emerged as important. Working with existing buildings undoubtedly entails higher uncertainty than new construction. Tools to adequately account for this uncertainty, without the need to exaggerate the risk in lifecycle costing, could improve the uptake of both adaptive reuse and vertical extension projects. The findings contribute to new knowledge of themes to enable a more circular built environment, and are useful for researchers, practitioners and policymakers wanting to contribute to a more circular real estate and construction sector.