Conservation assessment of the vulnerable species Capra nubiana under changing precipitation: a decision- support tool for conservation planning

Abstract

Over the last century, a significant decline in the population size of the Nubian Capra nubiana has been observed across its distribution range. This decline is attributed to the changes in natural resources, including water and foraging site capacity, due to the ongoing climate change. We applied species distribution models (SDMs) to investigate the response of C. nubiana to projected climate change in the next decades. We fitted ensemble SDMs with recently developed climate data based on climate models and two different dispersal scenarios to minimize the uncertainty and bias in our SDMs prediction. Our SDMs predicted a significant shrinkage of the distribution range of the C. nubiana in the coming decades, where C. nubiana may lose ca. 60% of its area of occupancy before 2050, while it may become extinct (lose > 90% of its projected area) before the end of the current century. Our results call for urgent conservation intervention at global and national scales to halt the impact of climate change on one of the remaining top mountain ungulate species in desert ecosystems.