Trophic Cascades and Habitat Suitability in Udanti Sitnadi Tiger Reserve: Impacts of Prey Depletion and Climate Change on Predator Prey Dynamics

Abstract

This study investigates the trophic cascades and habitat suitability in Udanti Sitnadi Tiger Reserve (USTR), highlighting the roles of apex predators, subordinate predators, and prey species in maintaining ecosystem balance. Using the Trophic Species Distribution Model (SDM), we explored prey-predator interactions and habitat suitability, revealing that tigers, due to prey depletion, increasingly rely on cattle, while leopards adapt by preying on smaller species. The study emphasizes the need for prey augmentation and habitat restoration to support apex predators. Additionally, climate change projections for 2021-2040 and 2081-2100 under CMIP6 scenarios SSP245 and SSP585 indicate significant regional habitat shifts, necessitating adaptive management strategies. Kuladighat is projected to face habitat contraction, while Sitanadi may experience habitat expansion. Effective conservation efforts such as habitat restoration, prey augmentation and predator recovery are the most important steps needed to maintain the purpose of a Tiger reserve and conservation potential of Udanti-Sonabeda Tiger Conservation Unit (TCU). To achieve these dynamics, focusing on community participation, anti-poaching measures, and scientific recommendations are the most crucial components to focus on. This comprehensive analysis underscores the critical role of targeted conservation activities in prey-depleted landscapes to ensure the long-term survival of tigers and the overall health of forest ecosystems, enhancing biodiversity and mitigating human-wildlife conflicts in USTR.