Impacts of Tempo and Mode of Environmental Fluctuations on Population Growth: Slow- and Fast-Limit Approximations of Lyapunov Exponents for Periodic and Random Environments

Abstract

We examine to what extent the tempo and mode of environmental fluctuations matter for the growth of structured populations. The models are switching, linear ordinary differential equations $x'(t)=A(\sigma(\omega t))x(t)$ where $x(t)=(x_1(t),\dots,x_d(t))$ corresponds to the population densities in the $d$ individual states, $\sigma(t)$ is a piece-wise constant function representing the fluctuations in the environmental states $1,\dots,N$, $\omega$ is the frequency of the environmental fluctuations, and $A(1),\dots,A(n)$ are Metzler matrices. $\sigma(t)$ can either be a periodic function or correspond to a continuous-time Markov chain. Under suitable conditions, there is a Lyapunov exponent $\Lambda(\omega)$ such that $\lim_{t\to\infty} \frac{1}{t}\log\sum_i x_i(t)=\Lambda(\omega)$ for all non-negative, non-zero initial conditions $x(0)$ (with probability one in the random case). For both forms of switching, we derive analytical first-order and second-order approximations of $\Lambda(\omega)$ in the limits of slow ($\omega\to 0$) and fast ($\omega\to\infty$) environmental fluctuations. When the order of switching and the average switching times are equal, we show that the first-order approximations of $\Lambda(\omega)$ are equivalent in the slow-switching limit, but not in the fast-switching limit. We illustrate our results with applications to stage-structured and spatially-structured models. When dispersal rates are symmetric, the first order approximations suggest that population growth rates increase with the frequency of switching -- consistent with earlier work on periodic switching. In the absence of dispersal symmetry, we demonstrate that $\Lambda(\omega)$ can be non-monotonic in $\omega$. In conclusion, our results show how population growth rates depend on the tempo ($\omega$) and mode (random versus deterministic) of the environmental fluctuations.