Risk assessment of energy performance contracting in Türkiye utilizing best–worst method

Abstract

Energy Service Companies (ESCO) provide various services to their customers through Energy Performance Contracts (EPCs), including technical support, financial assistance, installation, maintenance, and insurance services. However, emerging risks during this extended process can lead to uncertainties for energy efficiency implementations, ESCOs, and their clients. Understanding of uncertain factors of such energy efficiency applications is therefore crucial. This study aims to evaluate the risks that emerge in the stages of EPC implementations in Türkiye. An expert survey was conducted to assess these risks, with participants consisting of energy managers, representatives from Turkish ESCOs, experts from the financial sector, academics, and decision-makers. Based on the survey responses, the Best–Worst Method (BWM), a multi-criteria decision-making approach, was employed to evaluate the risks in EPCs. Binary comparison vectors, indicating the relative importance of evaluated risk factors, were formulated using the BWM, enabling the calculation of risk weights and the analysis of response consistency. It is revealed that “Financial and Market Risks” is the most important, and “Technological Risks” is the least important risk criterion for EPCs in Türkiye. In the end, policy recommendations were developed to improve EPC applications in Türkiye.