Navigating "tip fog": Embracing uncertainty in tip measurements

Abstract

Nature is full of messy variation, which serves as the raw material for evolution. However, in comparative biology this variation is smoothed into averages. Overlooking this variation not only weakens our analyses but also risks selecting inaccurate models, generating false precision in parameter estimates, and creating artificial patterns. Furthermore, the complexity of uncertainty extends beyond traditional "measurement error," encompassing various sources of intraspecific variance. To address this, we propose the term "tip fog" to describe the variance between the true species mean and what is recorded, without implying a specific mechanism. We show why accounting for tip fog remains critical by showing its impact on continuous comparative models and discrete comparative and diversification models. We rederive methods to estimate this variance and use simulations to assess its feasibility and importance in a comparative context. Our findings reveal that ignoring tip fog substantially affects the accuracy of rate estimates, with higher tip fog levels showing greater biases from the true rates, as well as affecting which models are chosen. The findings underscore the importance of model selection and the potential consequences of neglecting tip fog, providing insights for improving the accuracy of comparative methods in evolutionary biology.