Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Geographical Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya with Maximum Entropy Model

Abstract

Climate change has been disturbing the present species distribution ranges, resulting in the shifting of cultivation areas and decreases in production and quality. Tea (Camellia sinensis L.), which seeks optimum climatic resources, is a key cash crop economically in Kenya. In this study, the shifting of tea suitability was projected with the MaxEnt model under the SSP (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2090s relative to the 1970–2000 distribution. Analysis under the current climatic condition showed that the proportions of optimal and medium- and marginal-suitable areas were 2%, 3%, and 24% of the total area, respectively, and located in south-western (SW), central, and north-eastern (NE) Kenya and, to some extent, in the Rift Valley. It was projected that the potential suitable tea-growing areas would migrate from the western areas to the central, eastern, and north-eastern highlands in Kenya. It was detected that the precipitation of the driest period (July), precipitation of the wettest quarter (April, May, and June), and annual temperature range could be the main climatic factors determining the shift in tea distribution. Compared to the current distribution (29%), the climatically suitable areas for tea production could reach 32.58% of Kenya’s land area under the SSP1-2.6 scenarios in the 2050s and 35.08% in the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. On the contrary, it was found that the optimal climate-suitable habitats were projected to shrink by 2% and 1% in the 2050s and 2090s under all scenarios on the west side of the Great Rift Valley compared to the current distribution. In comparison, the sizes of medium- and marginal-suitable habitats would increase by 1% and 3%, respectively. The findings indicated that unless adaptive climate actions are taken, climate change could reduce the tea planting areas in western Kenya. Meanwhile, climate suitability was projected to expand upward on the east side of the Rift Valley, enhancing the potential distribution of tea. The developed climate information could be used to design and implement adaptation interventions in the lower elevation areas. Finally, we highlight that the available scientific literature on the climate suitability of tea in Kenya should be broadened by adding non-climatic factors.