Bayesian modelling of multiple plasma diagnostics at Wendelstein 7-X

Abstract

Inference of electron density and temperature has been performed using multiple, diverse sets of plasma diagnostic data at Wendelstein 7-X. Predictive models for the interferometer, Thomson scattering and helium beam emission spectroscopy (He-BES) systems have been developed within the Minerva framework and integrated into a unified model. Electron density and temperature profiles are modelled using Gaussian processes. Calibration factors for the Thomson scattering system and predictive uncertainties are considered as additional unknown parameters. The joint posterior probability distribution for the electron density and temperature profiles as well as Gaussian process hyperparameters and model parameters is explored through a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Samples from this distribution are numerically marginalised over the hyperparameters and model parameters to yield marginal posterior distributions for the electron density and temperature profiles. The profile inferences incorporate various data combinations from the interferometer and Thomson scattering as well as constraints at the limiter/divertor positions through virtual observations or edge data from He-BES. Additionally, the integration of x-ray imaging crystal spectrometer data into the model for ion temperature profiles is presented. All profiles presented in this study are inferred with optimally selected hyperparameters and model parameters by exploring the joint posterior distribution, inherently applying Bayesian Occam’s razor.