Intrinsic yield fluctuations interact with environmental shocks to threaten the socio-ecological resilience of perennial crop systems

Abstract

Mounting environmental stress on agricultural systems has catalyzed global efforts to support their socio-ecological resilience to extrinsic disturbance. Numerous perennial crop systems also display intrinsic yield fluctuations, or alternate bearing, that can synchronize across farm, regional, and national scales. Despite impacts on food supply and farmer income, alternate bearing is absent from discussions of resilience. Here, we leverage ecological theory to illustrate how synchronous alternate bearing and interactions with environmental disturbance can impact the socio-ecological resilience of perennial crop systems in important and unintuitive ways. Specifically, the multi-year effect of a disturbance on crop yield depends on its timing relative to resource gain and depletion with critical implications for farmer resilience. We examine potential resilience strategies across scales and identify priority areas for further actionable research. As environmental disturbances grow in frequency and intensity, our integrated framework can guide urgent efforts to support the socio-ecological resilience of perennial crop systems.