The future of offshore wind power production: wake and climate impacts

Abstract

Rapid deployment of offshore wind is expected within the coming decades to help meet climate goals. With offshore wind turbine lifetimes of 25-30 years, and new offshore leases spanning 60 years, it is vital to consider long-term changes in potential wind power resource at the farm planning stage. Such changes may arise from multiple sources, including climate change, and increasing wake-induced power losses. In this work, we investigate and compare these two sources of long-term change in wind power, for a case study consisting of 21 wind farms within the German Bight. Consistent with previous studies, we find a small but significant reduction in wind resource due to climate change by the end of the 21st century under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, compared with a historical period, with a mean power reduction (over an ensemble of seven climate models) of 2.1%. To assess the impact of wake-induced losses due to increasingly dense farm build-out, we model wakes within the German Bight region using an engineering wake model, under various stages of (planned) build-out corresponding to the years 2010-2027. By identifying clusters of wind farms, we decompose wake effects into long-range (inter-cluster), medium-range (intra-cluster) and short-range (intra-farm) effects. Inter-cluster wake-induced losses increase from 0 for the 2010 scenario to 2.5% for the 2027 scenario, with intra-cluster losses also increasing from 0 to 4.3%. Intra-farm losses are relatively constant, at around 13%. While the evolution of wake effects therefore outweighs the climate effect, and impacts over a shorter timescale, both factors are significant. We also find evidence of non-linear interactions between the climate and wake effects. Both climate change and evolving wake effects must therefore be considered within resource assessment and wind farm planning.