Correlation Between Space Borne Night-Time Light Data and Seismic Activity in Mountainous Region of Shughnon, Tajikistan

Abstract

The seismically active Shughnon district of the central-western part of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan nestled within the Pamir Mountain range, has experienced a significant number of seismic events of moderate to strong magnitude (> 4.0 to 6.8M_w) in the last decade. A deeper understanding and investigation of aftershock patterns and any potential seismic precursors is necessary for forecasting seismic hazards and its impact on human life, settlement and property. In this regard, utilization and correlation of night light disturbances data and night-time light emission anomalies against any pre- or post-seismic event offers a novel and unique approach to quantify the seismic impact on the mega cities especially situated in seismically active hilly and mountainous terrain. The study explores and examine the possible application of the Space borne night light imaging of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) as a potential tool for post-seismic impacts assessment and identification of any potential precursors or patterns of seismic activity and its impact on the mega city of Shughnon, Tajikistan. A retrospective analysis of VIIRS data cross-referencing with available historical seismic records of an eleven-year period (from 2012 to 2023) was evaluated and quantified by observing the variations in night light patterns and emission anomalies. About 15% reduction in night light brightness observed prior to three earthquakes, potentially linked to preemptive power grid shutdowns, infrastructure damage and population displacement. Post-earthquake imagery indicated a 60% decrease in lit areas and Recovery progress was quantified by a gradual 5% monthly increase in night light brightness, signaling restoration efforts.