Geospatial modeling of wildfire susceptibility on a national scale in Montenegro: A comparative evaluation of F-AHP and FR methodologies

Abstract

Wildfires pose a significant ecological, environmental, and socioeconomic challenge in southeastern Europe. The preservation of wildlands is not only essential but also a foremost priority for Montenegro, a country recognized as the world’s first ecological state. Consequently, the development of optimal methodologies and models is of paramount importance to enhance fire protection measures. With this objective in mind, this study strives to create a wildfire susceptibility model on a national scale for Montenegro. The study employed seven natural and anthropogenic causative criteria: vegetation type; aspect; slope; elevation; climate classification; distance from road; and population. The modeling process integrates both natural and anthropogenic causal criteria, employing the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) and Frequency Ratio (FR) within geoinformatics environment. The outcomes of the F-AHP model reveal that 72.84% of the total area is categorized as having high to very high susceptibility. Conversely, based on the FR model, only 29.07% of the area falls within these susceptibility levels. In terms of validation, the area under curvature values indicates good performance of the F-AHP model. In contrast, the FR model demonstrates poor performance. These novel findings, pertaining to Montenegro at a national scale, offer valuable insights for preemptive wildfire safeguarding efforts. Moreover, the methodologies employed, with necessary modifications, hold potential for application in geographically diverse regions.