Analyzing the transfer duration of public transport passengers using classification and regression tree-multiple-Cox proportional hazards (CART-Multi-Cox) model

Abstract

Transfer behavior is a critical factor influencing the travel efficiency of public transportation passengers. To address the potential group heterogeneity, the present work developed an integrated Classification and Regression Tree-Multiple-Cox Proportional Hazards (CART-Multi-Cox) model for transfer behavior analysis using smart card data in Shenzhen, China. Specifically, passengers are first grouped into different types based on transfer behavior features, and the influence of various independent variables on the transfer duration of different passenger groups is then examined. The results reveal that the proposed CART-Multi-Cox model is able to account for the heterogeneity effect and provides a deeper understanding about passengers’ transfer behavior and its underlying influencing mechanism. The findings offer valuable references for refined transfer behavior management and help enhancing the competitiveness of public transportation.