Modelling Residential Fire Vulnerability of Denmark

Abstract

This study analyzes socio-economic demographics (including Geomatic conzoom® segmented demographic variables) as well as building and property registration information as risk factors in relation to the prevalence of residential building fires within 100 m × 100 m cells. The logistic regression model achieved a receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.74 and a precision-recall curve of 0.12 on the testing dataset. The model identifies 19 significant variables related to the risk of residential fire. The top 5 highest performing variables in our model and their odds ratios are the following: number of people (OR 1.25), Multi/family residence-building type (OR 1.20), number of buildings (OR 1.18), conzoom® Type C—Country/Rural Communities (OR 0.85), construction year (OR 0.87). These results indicate that socio-economic factors play a large role in influencing fire vulnerability within residential areas and can help prioritize resource allocation to reduce fire vulnerability in the identified risk factor groups.