Research on the Dynamics of Word-of-Mouth Influencing Stock Prices

IF 2.3 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Systems Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI:10.3390/systems12090344
Wanglai Li, Huizhang Shen, Zhangxue Huang, Hanzhe Yang, Jidi Zhao
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Abstract

Word-of-mouth (WOM) can be considered one form of public opinion, reflecting consumers’ views towards product or service quality. With the development of social media, WOM holds influence over investors and subsequently impacts the stock prices of companies. The purpose of this study is to uncover the dynamics encompassing the factors that influence WOM, its propagation mechanisms, and the consequential impact on reality illustrated through fluctuations in stock prices. The mathematical model to describe the whole process can be separated into two components: information propagation model and stock price fluctuation model. The cumulative abnormal return (CAR) is used to demonstrate fluctuations in stock prices. Utilizing a Lyapunov function, it is proven that the equilibrium point of the model is globally asymptotically stable. As for the real world, it suggests that WOM will eventually prevail online, leading to fluctuations in stock prices. Based on the event study method, the empirical examination of 43 real events shows that our model can effectively predict the CAR and reflect the influence on stock prices caused by WOM in real-world scenarios.
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影响股票价格的口碑动态研究
口碑(WOM)可被视为一种舆论形式,反映了消费者对产品或服务质量的看法。随着社交媒体的发展,WOM 对投资者具有影响力,进而影响公司的股票价格。本研究旨在揭示 WOM 的影响因素、传播机制及其对现实的影响(通过股票价格的波动来说明)。描述整个过程的数学模型可分为两部分:信息传播模型和股价波动模型。累计异常收益率(CAR)用于说明股票价格的波动。利用 Lyapunov 函数证明了该模型的均衡点是全局渐近稳定的。至于现实世界,它表明 WOM 最终会在网上盛行,导致股票价格波动。基于事件研究法,对 43 个真实事件的实证检验表明,我们的模型可以有效预测 CAR,并反映出 WOM 在现实世界中对股价的影响。
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来源期刊
Systems
Systems Decision Sciences-Information Systems and Management
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
15.80%
发文量
204
审稿时长
11 weeks
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