{"title":"Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying","authors":"Andrew Mountford","doi":"10.1111/obes.12638","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The determinants of an economy's growth path for income per head may vary over time. In this paper, we apply unobserved components analysis to an otherwise standard panel model of economic growth dynamics so that an economy's long‐run relative income per head can change at any point of time. We apply this model to data for US states for 1929–2021 and the world economy for 1970–2019. In both datasets an economy's initial relative income per head is a good predictor of its long‐run relative income per head. Relatively poor economies on average remain relatively poor.","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12638","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
The determinants of an economy's growth path for income per head may vary over time. In this paper, we apply unobserved components analysis to an otherwise standard panel model of economic growth dynamics so that an economy's long‐run relative income per head can change at any point of time. We apply this model to data for US states for 1929–2021 and the world economy for 1970–2019. In both datasets an economy's initial relative income per head is a good predictor of its long‐run relative income per head. Relatively poor economies on average remain relatively poor.
期刊介绍：
Whilst the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics publishes papers in all areas of applied economics, emphasis is placed on the practical importance, theoretical interest and policy-relevance of their substantive results, as well as on the methodology and technical competence of the research.
Contributions on the topical issues of economic policy and the testing of currently controversial economic theories are encouraged, as well as more empirical research on both developed and developing countries.
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