Exploring explainable ensemble machine learning methods for long-term performance prediction of industrial gas turbines: A comparative analysis

Abstract

In today's modern life, where electricity demand is one of the fundamental necessities, gas turbines play a pivotal role in meeting this demand. As such, it is imperative to address the challenges faced in the field. Current models often rely on simplifying assumptions, neglecting the intricate relationships between variables. This limitation leads to reduced accuracy and reliability, ultimately affecting the overall efficiency of gas turbine systems. Furthermore, the complexity of gas turbine behavior, coupled with the scarcity of comprehensive datasets, exacerbates the problem.

To address these challenges, this research aimed to develop an advanced model capable of accurately forecasting real gas turbine behavior. The proposed approach leveraged ensemble decision trees, robust preprocessing techniques, and rigorous evaluation using an extensive dataset spanning from 2011 to 2015. The training and validation phases were conducted on data from 2011 to 2014, with the 2015 dataset reserved for evaluation.

The results demonstrated that the bagging structure outperformed the boosted structure, exhibiting lower complexity and higher reliability. Remarkably, the bagging approach with only 30 estimators achieved a superior root mean square error of 1.4176, outperforming the boosted trees with 200 learners. The model effectively captured the overall gas turbine performance, though it encountered limitations in certain specific operating ranges.

To further investigate the model's behavior, an evaluation was conducted to assess the effects of the input variables on the output power. While the interpretability of the results posed some challenges, the overall findings were deemed acceptable and provide valuable insights for optimizing gas turbine performance. The significance of this research lies in its potential to inform decision-making and enhance the efficiency of gas turbine systems, ultimately contributing to the reliable and sustainable supply of electricity.