{"title":"Assessing the influence of temperature on slope stability in a temperate climate: A nationwide spatial probability analysis in Italy","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106217","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Among landslide controls, the role of temperature in temperate regions remains poorly understood. Experiments revealed thermo-hydro-mechanical effects in geomaterials; however, field evidence of temperature-controlled landsliding is scarce. This complexity hinders the formulation of a temperature-related variable, useable in modelling across scales. Here, we identified spatial correlations between temperature and shallow landslides in gentle clay slopes. Notably, the temperature in the shallow underground is controlled by that of the atmosphere, and clays are the most sensitive to temperature among all geomaterials. Exploiting the Italian Landslide Inventory, we constructed a slope unit-based Generalised Additive Model and utilised Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from MODIS, accessible in Google Earth Engine. Interestingly, we observed a stronger positive correlation between landslides and LST, particularly in southern Italy, where categorised widespread shallow instabilities are common. Although more experiments and site-specific studies are warranted, the observed pattern appears consistent with thermal soil weakening, which may enhance landslide mobility.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":310,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815224002780/pdfft?md5=e2de8363b881e91a2f746fb372fa3b6a&pid=1-s2.0-S1364815224002780-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Modelling & Software","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815224002780","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Among landslide controls, the role of temperature in temperate regions remains poorly understood. Experiments revealed thermo-hydro-mechanical effects in geomaterials; however, field evidence of temperature-controlled landsliding is scarce. This complexity hinders the formulation of a temperature-related variable, useable in modelling across scales. Here, we identified spatial correlations between temperature and shallow landslides in gentle clay slopes. Notably, the temperature in the shallow underground is controlled by that of the atmosphere, and clays are the most sensitive to temperature among all geomaterials. Exploiting the Italian Landslide Inventory, we constructed a slope unit-based Generalised Additive Model and utilised Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from MODIS, accessible in Google Earth Engine. Interestingly, we observed a stronger positive correlation between landslides and LST, particularly in southern Italy, where categorised widespread shallow instabilities are common. Although more experiments and site-specific studies are warranted, the observed pattern appears consistent with thermal soil weakening, which may enhance landslide mobility.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Modelling & Software publishes contributions, in the form of research articles, reviews and short communications, on recent advances in environmental modelling and/or software. The aim is to improve our capacity to represent, understand, predict or manage the behaviour of environmental systems at all practical scales, and to communicate those improvements to a wide scientific and professional audience.