Mortality in extreme heat events: an analysis of Los Angeles County Medical Examiner data

Abstract

Objectives

Climate change is intensifying heat events, and local governments are working to absorb and mitigate the associated costs. To develop effective responses, local data on the relationship between climate and health are crucial. This study investigates the impact of heat events on unexpected mortality, focusing on deaths investigated by the Medical Examiner in Los Angeles County.

Study design

A retrospective observational study.

Methods

We estimate the associations between the National Weather Service's HeatRisk index and deaths investigated by the Medical Examiner in Los Angeles County using negative binomial count models with controls for time trends and seasonality. In subgroup analyses, we explore how these effects vary for those who are homeless or living in care facilities.

Results

Compared to days with no HeatRisk, days with moderate, major, or extreme HeatRisk were associated with death increases of 6.7% [CI: 1.9–11.7%], 15.3% [CI: 2.9–29.1%], and 65.5% [CI: 34.9–102.1%], respectively. Effects were more pronounced for individuals who were homeless or in care facilities. Major or extreme heat days were associated with a 59.3% [CI: 19.8–109.4%] increase in deaths among homeless individuals and a 91.4% [CI: 19.0–198.6%] increase in deaths among those in care facilities.

Conclusions

Heat events have a significant impact on mortality investigated by the Medical Examiner, especially among vulnerable groups. Local governments may consider using the warning tools provided by the National Weather Service to focus their resources on the most intense heat events, especially to target those living in care facilities or who are homeless.