Combining molecular transmission network analysis and spatial epidemiology to reveal HIV-1 transmission pattern among the older people in Nanjing, China

Abstract

In China, the problem of HIV infection among the older people has become increasingly prominent. This study aimed to analyze the pattern and influencing factors of HIV transmission based on a genomic and spatial epidemiological analysis among this population. A total of 432 older people who were aged ≥ 50 years, newly diagnosed with HIV-1 between January 2018 and December 2021 and without a history of ART were enrolled. HIV-1 pol gene sequence was obtained by viral RNA extraction and nested PCR. The molecular transmission network was constructed using HIV-TRACE and the spatial distribution analyses were performed in ArcGIS. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the factors associated with clustering. A total of 382 sequences were successfully sequenced, of which CRF07_BC (52.3%), CRF01_AE (32.5%), and CRF08_BC (6.8%) were the main HIV-1 strains. A total of 176 sequences entered the molecular network, with a clustering rate of 46.1%. Impressively, the clustering rate among older people infected through commercial heterosexual contact was as high as 61.7% and three female sex workers (FSWs) were observed in the network. The individuals who were aged ≥ 60 years and transmitted the virus by commercial heterosexual contact had a higher clustering rate, while those who were retirees or engaged other occupations and with higher education degree were less likely to cluster. There was a positive spatial correlation of clustering rate (Global Moran I = 0.206, P < 0.001) at the town level and the highly aggregated regions were mainly distributed in rural area. We determined three large clusters which mainly spread in the intra-region of certain towns in rural areas. Notably, 54.5% of cases in large clusters were transmitted through commercial heterosexual contact. Our joint analysis of molecular and spatial epidemiology effectively revealed the spatial aggregation of HIV transmission and highlighted that towns of high aggregation were mainly located in rural area. Also, we found vital role of commercial heterosexual contact in HIV transmission among older people. Therefore, health resources should be directed towards highly aggregated rural areas and prevention strategy should take critical persons as entry points.